Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

351
FXUS63 KICT 262011
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances continue this evening, with strong storms and
  heavy rain possible.

- Hit-or-miss storm chances for Friday and Saturday, especially
  across eastern KS.

- Storm chances ramp back up for Sunday afternoon and especially
  Sunday night as a front moves into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A low pressure system currently located over central Nebraska is
dragging a weak boundary southward across central Kansas. This
boundary will be the focal point of our convection this
afternoon and evening as it moves eastward throughout the day
and into the evening hours. While shear will remain weak across
the forecast area, the instability will reach between 2500-3000
J/kg in places. This, combined with the forcing from the
boundary, should be enough to produce a few thunderstorms
across eastern Kansas. The thermodynamic profile supports a few
strong wind gusts, however the lack of shear should limit the
hail threat. The slower moving nature of these storms, along
with 2 inch PWATs, would also support locally heavy rain leading
to some localized flooding concerns.

Then for Friday into this weekend, moisture and instability will
remain in place across the eastern half of Kansas though we will
lack in any real forcing across the area. Some weak mid-level
impulses will move across the region allowing minor convection to
develop in the weakly capped environment. Widespread severe weather
and significant rainfall is not anticipated with this activity. Then
on Sunday night into Monday, a shortwave will move into the northern
portion of the U.S. sending an associated weak frontal boundary
across the Central Plains. This will lead to slightly better rain
chances on Sunday night into Monday morning.

Beyond Monday, high pressure will build in behind the front leading
to generally lower rain chances. For the middle part of the week, we
could see isolated rain/storm chances as low level moisture remains
abundant and we`ll maintain some marginal instability. In the wake
of the frontal boundary, we will also see temperatures dip a few
degrees below normal for this time of year with afternoon highs
reaching into the middle to upper 80s and overnight lows falling
into the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Spotty showers and storms possible this afternoon.

Widespread scattered to broken VFR cigs continue to overspread
most locations along and west of the Flint Hills early this
afternoon. A plume of very rich moisture from the Eastern
Pacific, along with an approaching weak cold front sagging into
central and south-central Kansas, will set the stage for widely
scattered showers and storms across much of the area this
afternoon into tonight. The main concerns will be gusty winds
and very heavy rainfall. Sites impacted by stronger storms could
see wind gusts up to 40 knots, and over 1 in/hr rainfall rates
leading to a degradation in visibilities.

The axis of moisture driving these showers and storms will
gradually move eastward into tonight, and some activity may last
until Friday morning across southeast Kansas. Winds are
generally out of the south and southwest with gusts this
afternoon between 20 and 25 knots.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JC